Earth System Research Laboratory Physical Sciences Division

Diagnosing the Weather-Climate System

What does the ESRL Physical Sciences Division do for the nation?

The mission of the Physical Sciences Division (PSD) is to address physical science questions of short- and long-term societal and policy relevance within NOAA's Climate Goal and Weather and Water Goal, while conducting the physical process research necessary to help provide the nation with a seamless suite of information and forecast products ranging from short-term weather forecasts to longer-term climate forecasts and assessments.

Key Scientific Goals

PSD focuses resources and talents to advance several key NOAA mission goals in weather and climate with the following Division goals:

To provide the observation, analysis, and diagnosis of the physical processes in weather and climate necessary to increase understanding of the physics of the Earth's environment, including the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, and land, and to enable improved weather and climate predictions on global-to-local scales;
Improving our knowledge and predictions of important climate phenomena such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and their links to high-impact weather events;
Improving climate variability observations and analysis through surface and satellite observations and through the incorporation of such information into climate models;
Identifying major patterns of climate variability on decadal and longer time scales, including natural and human-induced change; and
Developing new climate information to benefit society and mitigate potential adverse impacts such as the effects of climate variability on water resources in the interior western U.S.

Recent Accomplishments

Research leading to advances in seasonal-to-interannual forecasting capabilities, such as the role of oceans. Payoffs: Improved NOAA seasonal climate forecasts and the development of prototypes for new climate forecast products. In turn, these new climate forecast products have been further developed and disseminated by NOAA on a routine basis, providing a strong impetus for expanding NOAA climate services.
Quantifying the physical exchange of heat, momentum, moisture, and trace gases between the atmosphere and ocean has been a challenge for weather and climate models. PSD, in collaboration with university and international research communities, has continued to develop the exchange mechanisms needed to model these exchanges as part of the NOAA Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Response Experiment. PSD recently engaged in efforts to improve the parameterization of sea spray to improve intensity forecasts in hurricane models. Payoffs: Improving the parameterizations of surface exchange in weather and climate models will reduce one element of uncertainty in future climate predictions and improve short-term forecasts of severe weather events.
Identifying links between short-term weather variations and El Niño. Payoffs: Improvement in climate predictions on time scales from a few weeks to a season, allowing for mitigation of the effects of floods over the west coast and effects of eastern Pacific and Gulf of Mexico tropical cyclones.
Applying advanced web technologies to better organize and make available NOAA climate products that serve the research community, resource managers, and the general public. Payoffs: Increased efficiency and simplicity in obtaining access to climate information products, enabling a broader range of customers to easily use NOAA climate observational and model data. The creation of web-based tools has also helped NOAA to develop expanded, near real-time climate diagnostic capabilities.
To incorporate scientific and technological advances into operations, PSD implemented a hydrometeorology observational testbed concept. The project has demonstrated new technology including new snow-level detection methods, buoy-mounted wind profilers, and gap-filling X-Band precipitation radars. In spring 2005, the testbed concept linked to PSD's Atmospheric Rivers project, with observations that included sending aircraft over the Pacific Ocean to probe the genesis of "atmospheric rivers" of water vapor. Payoffs: U.S. coastal short-term forecasts lag behind continental forecasts. Testing of new observing capabilities in regional coastal testbeds will result in improvements in NOAA's coastal forecasts, including improved forecasts of damaging flooding events on the west coast, such as those that devastated southern California during the winter of 2004.
Demonstrated the capability of remote sensors to operate autonomously on Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UASs). PSD successfully integrated a passive microwave vertical sounder on a UAS and operated it during missions flown from the southern California desert. Payoffs: Microwave remote sensing from Unmanned Aircraft Systems will improve forecasts and warnings of natural disasters, such as winter flash floods and related fatal mudslides on the west coast.

What's next for the Physical Sciences Division?

Science challenges for the next five to ten years include:

Improving understanding of the physical-process links between short-term climate variations and long-term climate trends.
Continuing to develop the weather-climate testbed concept as a means of accelerating the transfer of science and technology to the operational side of NOAA, with an initial focus on hydrometeorology.
Improving our observation and understanding of physics in the polar regions, in particular how physical processes reflect climate change and variability as well as their impact on the mid-latitudes.
Increasing understanding of the physics related to the causes of regional climate changes.
Expanding NOAA climate services by developing, evaluating, and disseminating a broad range of experimental climate products.
Determining the role of climate information in helping to address critical regional issues such as water management in the western U.S.

Research Partnerships

PSD works collaboratively with the other Earth System Research Laboratory Divisions, such as in the Unmanned Aircraft Systems project. PSD also works extensively with the NOAA Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES) at the University of Colorado at Boulder, which facilitates collaborations among scientists at the university, NOAA, and other institutions. Additional partners include other NOAA Research laboratories, other NOAA line offices and programs, the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, state agencies and other federal agencies, including the Bureau of Reclamation.